Strategy, Strategy. Mike Wilson ponders the recent announcement of a snap general election

by | Apr 24, 2017

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It seems I might owe the Prime Minister an apology. In last month’s IFA Magazine I accused Theresa May of not always knowing how to choose her battles wisely, and of wasting time and energy on second-line strategies. Well, I take all that back. The PM’s decision to call a surprise election on 8th June suggests that she has been reading up on her Sun Tzu.

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war,” says the ancient author of the Art of War. “Whereas defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” What better way could there be of understanding the PM’s need to go into the Brexit negotiations with the impression that she’s got a 58 million strong army behind her, rather than just 52% of them?

There’s more. “If your enemy’s forces are united,” says the sage, “separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack where your enemy is unprepared. Appear where you are not expected.” Well, full marks to Mrs May for getting that bit right as well. Her shock announcement on the morning after Easter Monday was perfectly timed for maximum impact.

 
 

Now you see it, now you don’t

And yet the Prime Minister is taking an unusual gamble this time, because she’s shifting the very support base on which the Brexit argument rests. Last year’s largely non-party referendum allowed public opinion to divide without very much reference to party loyalties – and, of course, a large part of the Tory party itself opposed the Brexit initiative which Mrs May is now leading. So did the overwhelming majority of the business community. And most of London’s voters….

Mrs May’s genius in calling this election has been to turn round last year’s non-party political Brexit decision so that it now re-emerges as a solid victory for the Conservative Party. “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night,” says Sun Tzu, “and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” If it works, she can now go out to Brussels with a boast of more than 52% behind her decision. Brilliant.

Well, maybe. But the doubts and the hostility are still there. Many in the business community are publicly working busily on finding reasons to be cheerful about the coming battle, but nobody is exactly whistling with pleasure at the prospect.

 
 

Banks are preparing continental bolt-holes for the fairly probable contingency of losing their European passports. The CBI is still pleading for something more definite than the stomach-churning prospect of tipping off an export cliff on the morning after Brexit. Londoners and the young are still appalled at the prospect. And absolutely nobody has been impressed by the revelation that the government has never even tried to quantify the cost of a hard Brexit.

“Relax, nothing can go wrong…”

As of late April, pollsters were predicting a safe 100 seat Conservative majority in June, which would be a useful advance on the thin 17 seat lead the PM has at the moment. The media seem agreed that she has chosen a good moment to destroy Jeremy Corbyn, whose 1970s-style Labour Party leadership has brought the party into deep trouble. And UKIP would seem to be a spent force, having successfully discharged its only torpedo.

But a lot can still change in seven weeks. Consider the Lib Dems, who were wiped off the constituency map in 2015 but who still lurk just below the waterline in many parts of the south of England. Consider the PM’s arrogant-sounding refusal to engage in TV election debates. And then consider the numbers of Conservatives who are threatening not to vote. How many apples have to fall off the applecart to upset it? We can’t know.

 
 

Back to Sun Tzu: “Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.” Nope, that isn’t on Mrs May’s agenda either. This isn’t over yet.

 

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