Lonmin miners return to work – UPDATE
Posted on: 21 Sep 2012 by Georgia Manors

Platinum miner Lonmin revealed that more than four-fifths of its workers reported for duty at its Marikana mine in South Africa on Thursday, following the wage settlement struck earlier in the week.

The long and often violent dispute, which claimed the lives of 46 people, ended after a deal was signed late on Tuesday evening.

‘The strike was the second unprotected strike embarked upon by workers in the industry this year. Following its conclusion, government, unions and mining companies need to work together to ensure that bargaining arrangements are adhered to by all parties,’ a statement from Lonmin said.

‘As part of this task Lonmin welcomes the opening of a conversation on centralised bargaining and pledges to be a full participant in that conversation. We are also committed to working with the Farlam Commission and all other participants who are committed to ensuring that the root causes of the events of recent weeks are addressed,’ the statement added.

The accord, however, will be quite costly for the company. Following the Marikana agreement Credit Suisse has downgraded its 2012/13 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecasts from $218m to $95m in 2012 and from $195m to $29m in 2013.

Even more interestingly, these analysts add that: ‘a positive equity case on Lonmin in our view could be made if the company can grow to 950koz per year. which would require capex of $450m at a minimum.’ That, however, would require an equity raise of at least $500m, together with some debt, or $1bn should all its debt be eliminated, they explain.

Credit Suisse has reiterated its ‘underperform’ stance and 525p price target on the miner´s shares.

JH

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